Europe’s natural gas generation and emissions, which were at their lowest in the first three quarters of 2024, are expected to rise significantly as winter arrives.
From January to September, electricity production from coal and natural gas decreased by 7.5% compared to 2023, resulting in a 7% drop in power emissions to 928 million metric tons of CO2, the lowest level in a decade.
As winter sets in and solar output falls by at least 50%, power producers will need to compensate for reduced solar energy and increased heating demand, primarily relying on gas, which represents Europe’s largest power source.
The decline in solar generation during winter months is significant, with expected monthly output dropping from 44 TWh in summer to under 20 TWh in winter.
The rise in demand for electricity puts pressure on power suppliers. In Germany, natural gas consumption for power generation is forecasted to increase by about 25% in December, potentially leading to 100 TWh of gas-fired power generation in Europe during that month. This could produce around 55 million tons of CO2 emissions, marking the highest gas generation and emissions levels since January.
Overall, the combination of rising electricity demand due to colder temperatures and the sharp decline in solar production will necessitate increased reliance on gas and coal, reversing the downward trend in emissions seen earlier in 2024. [1]
