Zawya published a report that suggested that the Weak demand from consumer goods industries will limit the ability to sustain significant price hikes. The manufacturing costs are increasing in the US, along with the increasing demand for sluggish goods. Trade policy uncertainty further complicates short- and medium-term planning, leading many businesses to delay major decisions and adopt a wait-and-see approach. With the exception of the United States, steel is to remain a buyer’s market through 2025, with a favorable outlook for 2026 as well.
The United States is expected to see higher steel prices, including hot-rolled coil, in the first half of 2025 following the removal of country exemptions and product exclusions from the 25% Section 232 import tariffs. The recent tightening of these tariffs, effective March 12, has further restricted steel imports, driving domestic prices upward. Additional tariffs on steel from Canada and Mexico are also contributing to rising costs, putting further pressure on US market prices.
If the production cuts happen as predicted, Steel prices in mainland China are expected to see only small increases in the second half of 2025. As of now, most steel mills are running well below full capacity—rebar mills are operating at less than 50%, and wire rod mills at just around 30%.
According to the data provided by S&P Global, the Traders’ inventories keep rising month over month, underlining just how weak the demand is. Construction activity isn’t likely to show significant improvement before 2026, keeping long steel product prices at highly competitive levels through late 2025 and into early 2026.
Protectionism is also gaining momentum in other global steel markets. In Europe, the authorities plan on strengthening their tariff rate quotas (TRQ), and steel sheet prices are set to increase in reaction. Meanwhile, Vietnam has imposed antidumping duties on mainland China and India, moving toward implementing the process of safeguard duties.
As per the Reports, US coking coal prices are expected to remain steady but subdued due to sluggish Asia-Pacific demand. Further pressure comes from new US fees—$500,000 to $1.5 million per port call—on China-built vessels, which could raise shipping costs and limit trade activity. Market analysts see little upward price movement in the near term.
Source: Zawya, S&P global