Driven by market dynamics and policy shifts, India’s steel prices have seen a notable rise [1] in recent months. However, the specter of a global trade war looms large, raising concerns about the stability of the industry.
In March 2025, hot rolled coil (HRC) prices in Mumbai increased by ₹600 per tonne month-on-month, reaching ₹49,000 per tonne. Similarly, rebar prices rose by ₹1,600 per tonne, hitting ₹54,400 per tonne. Despite these gains, year-on-year comparisons reveal that prices remain lower than in FY24.
The rise in domestic prices comes as the United States imposed a 25% tariff on steel imports from March 12, 2025. This move is expected to divert trade flows, leading to increased imports into India at competitive prices. While only 2% of India’s finished steel exports were directed to the U.S. in the first nine months of FY25, the ripple effects of global competition are anticipated to pressure domestic prices further.
Industry experts highlight the dual challenge faced by Indian steelmakers: declining exports and rising imports. Jayant Acharya, CEO of JSW Steel, expressed concerns over the potential diversion of global steel supplies to India, which could impact profitability. “While domestic demand remains robust, margin pressures persist due to lower steel prices,” he noted.
Amid declining exports, the European Union, a key market for Indian steel, has announced proposed changes to the World Trade Organization (WTO) regulations. These revisions, set to take effect from April 1, will significantly reduce the total duty-free import quotas for hot rolled coils (HRC), with Indian steel facing a 25% cut in duty-free quotas for hot rolled sheets.
Ranjan Dhar, Director and Vice President of Sales & Marketing at ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India (AM/NS India), commented on the situation, saying that if a safeguard duty is introduced domestically and demand continues to grow at 7–8%, the necessity to export HRC may diminish.
“The government appears determined to safeguard its domestic market from excessive imports, especially in light of the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Given that steel prices are currently at a four-year low, an influx of dumped goods could lead to further price declines, exacerbating pressure on margins,” Dhar stated.
A potential safeguard duty, if implemented, could support a price recovery within the domestic market.
Adding to the complexity, Fitch Ratings recently flagged reduced rating headroom for major players like JSW Steel and Tata Steel. Persistent cheap imports from China and aggressive tariff policies in other economies are expected to weigh on domestic steel prices through FY26. However, Fitch anticipates some relief in FY26, driven by sustained domestic demand growth and moderation in input costs.
The Indian government may need to intervene with safeguard duties to protect domestic capacities. The timing and scale of such measures will be crucial in balancing the interests of steelmakers and consumers.
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[1] Domestic steel prices rise but looming global trade war sparks concerns https://www.business-standard.com/industry/news/domestic-steel-prices-rise-but-looming-global-trade-war-sparks-concerns-125031800446_1.html