India’s steel imports surged [1] to 10.1 million tonnes in FY25, the highest level since FY16, according to provisional data from market analytics firm BigMint. The increase, driven by an influx of finished flat-steel shipments, has once again turned India into a net steel importer. Rising shipments from South Korea, China, and Japan have contributed to the trend, as imported steel remains 7-8% cheaper than domestically produced material.
The last time imports reached comparable levels was in FY16, when they peaked at 11.8 million tonnes. Simultaneously, India’s steel exports declined to their lowest levels since FY15, continuing a downward trend from 18.51 million tonnes in FY22 to 6.95 million tonnes in FY25—a sharp drop of more than 60% over three years. The widening gap between domestic and international steel prices has made Indian steel less competitive in foreign markets, further amplifying imports of cheaper alternatives.
During April 2024–March 2025, imports of finished flat-steel—a key material in automobiles and manufacturing—rose to 8.31 million tonnes, reinforcing India’s dependence on foreign supply. Chinese steel exports are expected to remain strong in April, as companies push shipments ahead of impending trade restrictions, according to S&P Global. Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveals that the country produced 92.84 million metric tons of crude steel last month, marking the highest monthly output since May 2024.
While India’s newly introduced 12% safeguard duty offers near-term relief to local producers, analysts warn that global oversupply and economic downturn could exert downward pressure on steel prices in the long run. Elara Securities forecasts domestic steel demand to be driven by infrastructure projects, seasonal demand for white goods, and import reductions. However, ongoing tariff uncertainties, global GDP deceleration, and potential devaluation of the yuan present risks for India’s steel industry. Falling coking coal and iron ore prices may provide some relief on production costs, but broader concerns persist.
The U.S. tariffs and China’s steel capacity rationalization initially pushed global steel prices higher, but as trade barriers escalate, concerns over supply chain disruptions, inflation, and economic stagnation have weakened commodity prices. While steel prices firmed up in March following speculation around India’s safeguard duty, they quickly retreated amid cautious buying activity.
Sources:
[1] Steel imports surge to a 9-year high amid bargain shipments https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/steel-imports-surge-to-a-9-year-high-amid-bargain-shipments-12999313.html