India’s steel trade experienced a significant downturn [1] in February 2025, with imports plunging by 40% year-on-year to 0.6 million tons. This sharp decline has been attributed to concerns over potential safeguard duties, dampening traders’ buying sentiment. The Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) is currently investigating allegations of steel dumping, and the possibility of imposing a 12–15% safeguard duty has created uncertainty in the market.
Exports also dropped steeply, falling by 60% year-on-year to 0.4 million tons in February. Weak demand from key markets, including Europe and Vietnam, compounded the challenges for Indian steel exporters. Anti-dumping investigations in Europe and subdued market activity in other regions have further strained export performance.
Despite the monthly setbacks, India’s steel trade figures for the fiscal year reveal a mixed picture. Over the 11-month period from April 2024 to February 2025, steel imports rose by 16% year-on-year to 8.9 million tons, while exports declined by 34% to 4.9 million tons. This trend underscores India’s position as a net importer of steel during the fiscal year.
The domestic steel industry has responded to these challenges by increasing prices for March deliveries, with hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices rising by ₹1,400–1,500 per ton. However, market analysts predict that buyer resistance and subdued demand may limit the extent of price increases in the coming months.
India’s steel sector remains a critical component of the economy, and the ongoing developments in trade policies and global market dynamics will play a pivotal role in shaping its future trajectory. The industry must navigate these challenges while exploring opportunities for growth and innovation.
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[1] India’s steel imports plunge 40% in February amid safeguard duty fears, exports fall 60% https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/indias-steel-imports-plunge-40-in-february-amid-safeguard-duty-fears-exports-fall-60/article69307099.ece