China’s crude steel production surged in March [1], reaching its highest monthly level in nearly a year, as steelmakers ramped up output in response to favorable profit margins, strong export demand, and resilient manufacturing activity.
The world’s largest steel producer manufactured 92.84 million metric tons of crude steel last month, marking a 4.6% increase from the prior year. The March figure represents the highest monthly output since May 2024, with an average daily output of 2.99 million tons, up from 2.82 million tons in January-February.
China’s manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in a year in March, helping offset some of the economic fallout from the country’s protracted property market downturn. Strong exports further supported demand, contributing to the increase in crude steel output.
In the first quarter of 2025, China’s total crude steel production edged up 0.6% year-on-year to 259.33 million tons, reflecting the sector’s resilience despite ongoing challenges.
Industry analysts caution, however, that April’s output may stabilize or decline, citing concerns over escalating trade tensions between Beijing and Washington, as well as uncertainties in domestic demand.
“Steelmakers are largely maintaining current operating rates, leaving limited scope for further increases in hot metal output,” said Pei Hao, a senior analyst at Freight Investor Services.
Profitability in the steel sector has improved significantly, with around 53% of steelmakers operating at a profit in March, compared to just 25% a year ago, according to consultancy Mysteel.
Despite the March rebound, analysts remain cautious about the outlook for steel consumption, particularly within the infrastructure sector, and anticipate potential declines in steel exports amid growing trade frictions.
[1] China March crude steel output hits 10-month high on improved margins https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/china-march-crude-steel-output-jumps-on-decent-margins-rising-exports-3987089