According to commodity analysts Kpler, China, the world’s biggest buyer of iron ore, is expected to import 99.5 million metric tons of the key steel raw material in January.
China’s imports of iron ore and seaborne coal are on track for a soft start to the year, with January arrivals declining to multi-month lows, says official report.
However, the price trends for the two key bulk commodities are divergent, with iron ore holding up while thermal coal has been reported to be weak for nearly four years.
China’s iron ore imports in January may see disruptions due to the week-long Lunar New Year holidays, which stretched from late January into early February this year. Analysts caution that some shipments could be deferred from January to February as a result of the holiday period.
In the coal sector, data from Kpler indicates that China’s seaborne imports of all coal grades reached 27.97 million tons in January, a drop of 26% from December’s total of 37.59 million tons, highlighting shifting import patterns in the face of seasonal and market influences.
Customs data showed coal imports of 52.35 million tons in December, but this includes overland arrivals from neighbouring countries such as Mongolia and Russia.
Coal imports typically decline in January and February as peak winter demand subsides. However, the drop in January 2025 is notably steeper than in previous years. In January 2024, coal imports fell by only 9% from December, while in January 2023, the decline was 10.9%.
China may need less from the seaborne market as domestic supplies increase.
A strong rise in coal production has pushed domestic prices lower. According to SteelHome, thermal coal at Qinhuangdao is priced at 765 yuan ($106) per ton this week, down 12.6% from its 2024 peak of 875 yuan in September. This marks the lowest price since April 2021.