China’s iron ore imports are projected to reach an all-time high in 2025, as traders capitalize on low-cost supplies to stockpile resources for the world’s largest consumer of the commodity.
This surge comes despite ongoing challenges in the property sector, weighing on domestic steel demand, according to industry analysts and market insiders.
The imports reflect a strategic move by traders to secure cheaper ore for future demand fluctuations, underscoring the complex dynamics of china’s steel.
The country’s imports of the key steelmaking ingredient will likely rise by between 10 million and 40 million metric tons to up to 1.27 billion tons this year, up from what forecasters expect to record volumes in 2024, seven analysts and two traders said in a survey conducted by Reuters.
Higher Imports are expected to be fuelled by increased shipments from top producers, including Australia and Brazil, Industry experts said.
As miners look to sell ore before the giant Simandou iron ore project begins production later this year and floods the market with new supplies.
“Our base case assumes a moderate surplus in 2025 and prices holding up around $95-100/t,” said Myles Allsop, UBS’ head of EMEA mining.
According to analysts, weakness in China’s steel sector, which accounts for the majority of iron ore consumption, is expected to drive port stockpiles to as much as 170 million tons by 2025.
“We see the surplus getting larger in 2026/27 driving prices deeper into the cost curve.”
China, the world’s largest iron ore consumer, accounted for over two-thirds of global seaborne shipments, importing 1.124 billion tons of iron ore in the first 11 months of 2024, up 4.3% year-on-year, even as its crude steel output slid by 2.7% over the same period.
Rising imports show traders and suppliers still expect Chinese iron ore demand to remain resilient for years to come despite persistent weakness in the property sector.
Brazilian miner Vale aims to produce between 325 million and 335 million tons of iron ore in 2025 from about 328 million tons in 2024.
But a potential depreciation of the yuan and China’s push to boost steel production from electric arc furnaces, which primarily use scrap, could curb iron ore imports in 2025. The country aims to increase the share of electric arc furnace steel to 15% by 2025 and also may lower iron ore imports this year, four of the analysts said.