Baosteel forecasts a decrease in steel exports and weaker domestic consumption in 2025, though the exact timing and magnitude are unclear. This comes despite the company’s recent profit growth. The company, Baosteel, a subsidiary of the state-owned China Baowu Steel Group, is known to be the world’s largest steelmaker by output.
China’s biggest listed steelmaker, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., warned of potential nationwide production cuts this year, citing external challenges for an industry already struggling with excess capacity and weakening demand.
Cai Yanbo, Baosteel’s deputy general manager, said, ‘Chances for a cut are high as it has been mentioned in the government report,’ at the company’s first-quarter results briefing on Monday, during a discussion about cutting 50 million metric tons of Chinese crude steel output this year.
Cai, however, added that he did not expect cuts to be implemented this month or next month; “We have appealed to relevant authorities to avoid one-size-fits-all approach while controlling output,” he said.
An output cut of this magnitude could help stabilize the steel market by supporting steel prices while putting downward pressure on the cost of raw materials like iron ore and coking coal. Beijing has said it plans to restructure the steel industry through output cuts, without any further elaboration.
According to Baosteel Chairman Zou Jinxin, China’s direct steel exports are expected to drop by about 15 million tons in 2025 as tariff increases take effect, while indirect exports could fall by an even steeper 20 million tons.
China’s indirect steel exports, including manufactured goods like containers, vehicles, and heavy machinery, are projected to decline alongside direct shipments. Zou anticipates Beijing will implement additional stimulus policies to mitigate external pressures. This comes after the country’s steel exports reached 110.72 million tons in 2024, their highest level in nine years.
While Baosteel achieved record steel exports of 6.07 million tons last year, the company has not yet set export targets for 2025. Zou Jinxin warned of a 2% contraction in China’s domestic steel demand next year. These projections come despite Baosteel’s strong Q1 performance, where net profit surged 26.4% annually through effective cost control measures.