India is now responsible for over 40% of global steelmaking capacity in development (352 mtpa) compared to just 140 mtpa in China. Analysis shows India’s planned steel capacity, which is larger than China’s and the EU’s combined, must leverage EAF and DRI to keep industry emissions within climate targets.
A recent analysis shows that electric arc furnaces (EAFs), a cleaner alternative to conventional steel production, will account for 36% of global capacity (868 million tons per annum) by 2030. Although this represents significant growth, it still falls short of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 38% decarbonisation target for the industry. While the adoption of EAFs has steadily increased this decade, more than 60% of the world’s steel output continues to depend on coal-based methods, which remain highly carbon-intensive.
India now plans on doubling its steelmaking capacity by 2030. Being responsible for over two-fifths of global steelmaking capacity development, India is now at 352 mtpa compared to just 140 mtpa in China.
The country is also responsible for more than half of the coal-based steelmaking capacity currently under development (200 million tons per annum). Their steel sector remains the most carbon-intensive globally, emitting roughly 20–25% more CO2 per ton than China’s steel production.
Astrid Grigsby-Schulte, Project Manager of the Global Iron and Steel Tracker at Global Energy Monitor, said, “India is now the bellwether of global steel decarbonisation. If the country does not increase its plans for green steel production, the entire sector will miss an important milestone. So goes India, so goes the world.”
While India has been actively announcing expansion plans, much of the planned capacity has yet to materialize. Projects in the pipeline grew by over a third, from 258 million tons per annum (mtpa) in 2024 to 352 mtpa in 2025, but construction has only started on 28 mtpa, just 8% of the total. This indicates that, for now, the country’s ambitious growth plans are more about intentions than concrete progress.
For the first time, this year’s report includes data from the Global Iron Ore Mine Tracker, which tracks the key raw material for primary steel production. Given that roughly 98% of mined iron ore is used in steelmaking, directing this resource toward green ironmaking initiatives could play a pivotal role in accelerating the net-zero transition for the industry.
According to the report, global iron ore production reached 2.059 billion tonnes in the past year, with Australia (43%) and Brazil (21%) dominating nearly two-thirds of worldwide output. This market dominance positions both nations as key players capable of shaping the future of green steel development.