India’s ambitious plans to double steel production [1] by 2030 could severely undermine national and international climate goals, according to a new report by Global Energy Monitor (GEM). The findings highlight the country’s overwhelming reliance on coal-based steelmaking, raising concerns about its ability to curb carbon emissions in line with global efforts.
Steel production is among the most carbon-intensive industries, responsible for nearly 9% of global greenhouse gas emissions. India, the world’s second-largest steel producer, currently generates up to 12% of its total emissions from steelmaking alone—a figure projected to double in five years if expansion proceeds as planned.
While steelmakers worldwide are moving toward greener production methods, India’s sector remains largely dependent on coal-based technologies, making decarbonisation particularly difficult. GEM’s report warns that India’s trajectory could jeopardise global steel industry targets, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) aiming for 37% of global steel production to come from lower-emission electric arc furnaces by 2030. Current projections place that number at just 36%—a shortfall largely due to India’s coal-heavy infrastructure.
“India is now the bellwether of global steel decarbonisation,” said Astrid Grigsby-Schulte, project manager of the Global Iron and Steel Tracker at GEM and co-author of the report. “If the country does not increase its plans for green steel production, the entire sector will miss an important milestone. So goes India, so goes the world.”
India plans to expand its steel production capacity from 200 million to over 330 million tonnes per year by 2030. The report highlights that over 40% of the global steel production capacity in development—approximately 352 million tonnes—is based in India, with more than half of this relying on coal-based technologies. The country’s steel sector emits approximately 2.6 tonnes of carbon dioxide per tonne of steel, about 25% higher than the global average. By contrast, China, the world’s largest steel producer, has reduced emissions per tonne by increasing scrap-based steel production and retiring older coal-based plants.
Despite the challenges, GEM analysts believe India still has an opportunity to pivot toward lower-emission technologies. “There is potential for India to change course,” said Henna Khadeeja, a GEM research analyst. “Much of the planned capacity is still on paper—only 8% of projects have actually broken ground. This means there is still room to shift toward greener alternatives.”
India’s steel sector faces additional risks beyond environmental concerns. While its steel exports make up only a fraction of its overall production, they could suffer as major economies—such as the European Union—begin enforcing carbon border taxes in 2026. Experts suggest that embracing greener production methods sooner rather than later may bolster India’s long-term competitiveness in global markets.
“India may be better off tolerating some short-term pain of technological upgrading,” said Easwaran Narassimhan of the Sustainable Futures Collaborative in New Delhi. “This could help its steel industry remain viable in the future as international markets tighten carbon regulations.”
India remains at a crossroads: it aims to produce 500 gigawatts of clean energy by 2030 and reach net-zero emissions by 2070, yet its coal-dependent steel sector remains a major obstacle. Policymakers face pressure to balance industrial growth with climate commitments—decisions that will shape both national and global emissions trends in the coming decades.
Sources:
[1] India’s steel industry expansion plans threaten national and global emissions goals, report finds https://www.euronews.com/green/2025/05/20/indias-steel-industry-expansion-plans-threaten-national-and-global-emissions-goals-report-